The surprising conclusion is that some security advice we give to people -- such as inspect URLs carefully, pay attention to https certificate warnings, and use complicated passwords that change frequently -- does more harm than good. It actually costs someone far more to follow the advice than the benefit that person should expect to get.
Extended excerpts from the paper:
It is often suggested that users are hopelessly lazy and unmotivated on security ... [This] is entirely rational from an economic perspective ... Most security advice simply offers a poor cost-benefit tradeoff to users and is rejected.The paper also has a great discussion of password policies and how they appear to be counter-productive. When system administrators require passwords with weird special characters than need to be changed regularly, they make passwords difficult to remember and impose a substantial burden on users, but the benefit from this policy appears to be minimal.
[Security] advice offers to shield [people] from the direct costs of attacks, but burdens them with increased indirect costs ... Since victimization is rare, and imposes a one-time cost, while security advice applies to everyone and is an ongoing cost, the burden ends up being larger than that caused by the ill it addresses.
To make this concrete, consider an exploit that affects 1% of users annually, and they waste 10 hours clearing up when they become victims. Any security advice should place a daily burden of no more than 10/(365 * 100) hours or 0.98 seconds per user in order to reduce rather than increase the amount of user time consumed. This generated the profound irony that much security advice ... does more harm than good.
We estimate US annual phishing losses at $60 million ... Even for minimum wage any advice that consumes more than ... 2.6 minutes per year to follow is unprofitable [for users] from a cost benefit point of view ... Banks [also] have more to fear from ... indirect losses such as support costs ... than direct losses. For example ... an agent-assisted password reset by 10% of their users would cost $48 million, easily dwarfing Wells Fargo's share of the overall $60 million in phishing losses.
Users are effectively trained to ignore certificate warnings by seeing them repeatedly when there is no real security threat .... As far as we can determine, there is no evidence of a single user being saved from harm by a certificate error, anywhere, ever ... The idea that certificate errors are a useful tool in protecting [users] from harm ... is entirely abstract and not evidence-based. The effort we ask of [users] is real, while the harm we warn them of is theoretical.
Advice almost always ignores the cost of user effort ... The main reason security advice is ignored is that it makes an enormous miscalculation: it treats as free a resource that is actually worth $2.6 billion an hour ... Advice-givers and policy-mandaters demand far more effort than any user can give .... User education is a cost borne by the whole population, while offering benefit only to the fraction that fall victim ... The cost of any security advice should be in proportion to the victimization rate .... [lest] in trying to defend against everything we end up defending nothing.
It is not users who need to be better educated on the risks of various attacks, but the security community. Security advice simply offers a bad cost-benefit tradeoff to users .... We must respect users' time and effort. Viewing the user's time as worth $2.6 billion an hour is a better starting point than valuing it at zero ... When we exaggerate all dangers we simply train users to ignore us.
[Paper found via Bruce Schneier]