Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Predictions for 2010

It's that time of year again. Many are making their predictions for the tech industry for 2010.

It's been a while since I played this game -- last time was my dark prediction for a dot-com crash in 2008 ([1] [2]) -- but I thought I'd try again this year.

I wrote up my predictions in a post over at blog@CACM, "What Will 2010 Bring?"

Because it is for the CACM, the predictions focus more on computing in general than on startups, recommendations, or search. And, they are phrased as questions than as predictions.

I think the answer to some of the questions I posed may be no. For example, I doubt tablets will succeed this time around, don't think enterprises will move to the public cloud as much as expected, and am not sure that personalized advertising will always be used to benefit consumers. I do think netbooks are a dead market, mobile devices will become standardized and more like computers, and that 2010 will see big advances in local search and augmented reality on mobile devices.

If you have any thoughts on these predictions or some of your own to add, please comment either here or at blog@CACM.

Update: Another prediction, not in that list, that might be worth including here, "Who Needs Massively Multi-Core?"

No comments: